Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model
نویسندگان
چکیده
Despite the fact that Denmark is a small country, historically there have been fairly consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-periodcohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors to concisely illuminate the regional differences in first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on the number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To identify the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, and this provides a surprisingly good description, suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the ‘moral geography’ concepts of Tonboe (2001). 1 Research Assistant, Centre for Alcohol Research, National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark. Correspondence to: Lau Caspar Thygesen, Centre for Alcohol Research, National Institute of Public Health, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1399 Copenhagen K, Denmark, teleph +45 39207777, fax +45 39464002 / +45 39208010. E-mail: [email protected] 2 Associate Professor, Department of Social Studies and Organization, Aalborg University, Denmark 3 Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Denmark Thygesen, Knudsen & Keiding: Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 574 http://www.demographic-research.org
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تاریخ انتشار 2005